Worldwide Threat Assessment — Cyber, Traffickers, AI, Microbes, and Social Media

by Dee McLachlan

“Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community” was produced by Daniel R. Coats, Director of National Intelligence, for the US, and released on the 13th of February. I have included some parts of the document below. (Note: This was published a few weeks before Putin’s announcements on 1 march, 2018.)

Much of the document is focused on Russia and China, and about the “competition” between countries, with a focus on…

“Adversaries and malign actors will use all instruments of national power—including information and cyber means—to shape societies and markets, international rules and institutions…”

I suppose the rest of the world is catching up to the Western mainstream media, which has been shaping societies, markets, institutions, and the public for decades.

The report claims that “geopolitical order and stability will continue to fray,” and that “technology-induced disruptions in job markets are fueling populism within advanced industrial countries,” and this will contribute to rising social tensions.

Also, democracies are under threat, as the public have…

“…become less trusting of authoritative information sources.”

Interestingly, many countries are mentioned — but not Australia (Russia 67 times; Australia 0). Below, I have included some extracts from the assessment document:

Cyber Threats

The potential for surprise in the cyber realm will increase in the next year and beyond as billions more digital devices are connected—with relatively little built-in security—and both nation states and malign actors become more emboldened and better equipped in the use of increasingly widespread cyber toolkits. The risk is growing that some adversaries will conduct cyber attacks—such as data deletion or localized and temporary disruptions of critical infrastructure.

…Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea will pose the greatest cyber threats to the United States during the next year.

…Transnational criminals will continue to conduct for-profit cyberenabled crimes, such as theft and extortion… the line between criminal and nation-state activity to become increasingly blurred…

Weapons of Mass Destruction

State efforts to modernize, develop, or acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD), their delivery systems, or their underlying technologies constitute a major threat… Both state and nonstate actors have already demonstrated the use of chemical weapons in Iraq and Syria. Biological and chemical materials and technologies—almost always dual-use—move easily in the globalized economy, as do personnel with the scientific expertise to design and use them for legitimate and illegitimate purposes. Information about the latest discoveries in the life sciences also diffuses rapidly around the globe, widening the accessibility of knowledge and tools for beneficial purposes and for potentially nefarious applications.

We assess that ISIS is also using chemicals as a means of warfare. [No mention of suppliers, and who is financing ISIS in this proxy war?]

Disruptive Technology

New technologies and novel applications of existing technologies have the potential to disrupt labor markets and alter health, energy, and transportation systems.

The widespread proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI)… is likely to prompt new national security concerns …Increasingly capable AI tools, which are often enabled by large amounts of data, are also likely to present socioeconomic challenges, including impacts on employment and privacy. 

New biotechnologies are leading to improvements in agriculture, health care, and
manufacturing. However, some applications of biotechnologies may lead to unintentional negative health effects, biological accidents, or deliberate misuse.

Advanced materials could disrupt the economies… New materials, such as nanomaterials, are often developed faster than their health and environmental effects can be assessed. 

Space and Counterspace

All actors will increasingly have access to space-derived information services, such as imagery, weather, communications, and positioning, navigation, and timing for intelligence, military, scientific, or business purposes.

Both Russia and China continue to pursue antisatellite (ASAT) weapons as a means to reduce US and allied military effectiveness.

Transnational Organised Crime

Transnational organized criminal groups and networks will pose serious and growing threats to the security and health… Transnational organized criminal groups supply the dominant share of illicit drugs consumed in the United States, fueling high mortality rates among US citizens.

Human trafficking will continue in virtually every country. International organizations estimate that about 25 million people are victims.

Criminal wildlife poaching, illegal fishing, illicit mining, and drug-crop production will continue to threaten economies, biodiversity, food supply security, and human health. For example, academic studies show that illicit mining alone adds some 650 to 1,000 tons of toxic mercury to the ecosystem each year.

Economics and Energy

Global growth in 2018—projected by the IMF to rise to 3.9 percent… [yet] Oil-exporting countries continue to suffer from the late-2014 oil price drop, and their economic woes are likely to continue… [The US military is the largest institutional consumer of oil in the world.]

Human Security

Governance shortfalls, violent conflict, environmental stresses, and increased potential for a global health crisis will create significant risks to human security, including high levels of human displacement and migration flows.

Domestic and foreign challenges to democracy and institutional capacity will test governance quality globally in 2018, especially as competitors manipulate social media to shape opinion. Freedom House reported the 11th consecutive year of decline in “global freedom” in 2017, and nearly one quarter of the countries registering declines were in Europe.

…some scholars suggest the quality of democracy has declined.

…more governments are using propaganda and misinformation in social media to influence foreign and domestic audiences. The number and sophistication of government efforts to shape domestic views of politics have increased dramatically in the past 10 years.

Poor governance, weak national political institutions, economic inequality, and the rise of violent nonstate actors all undermine states’ abilities to project authority and elevate the risk of violent — even regime threatening — instability and mass atrocities. [What about a mention of “state” actors creating instability and mass atrocities.]

Environment and Climate Change:

The impacts of the long-term trends toward a warming climate, more air pollution, biodiversity loss, and water scarcity are likely to fuel economic and social discontent—and possibly upheaval—through 2018.

Worsening air pollution from forest burning… Accelerating biodiversity and species loss—driven by pollution, warming, unsustainable fishing, and acidifying oceans—will jeopardize vital ecosystems that support critical human systems. Recent estimates suggest that the current extinction rate is 100 to 1,000 times the natural extinction rate.

Human Displacement:

Global displacement almost certainly will remain near record highs during the next year… Conflicts will keep many of the world’s refugees and internally displaced persons from returning home. [Of course no mention of the “destroy seven countries in five years.]

Health:

The increase in frequency and diversity of reported disease outbreaks—such as dengue and Zika—probably will continue through 2018, including the potential for a severe global health emergency that could lead to major economic and societal disruptions, strain governmental and international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support. A novel strain of a virulent microbe that is easily transmissible between humans continues to be a major threat, with pathogens such as H5N1 and H7N9 influenza and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus having pandemic potential if they were to acquire efficient human-to-human transmissibility.

Increasing antimicrobial resistance…

[End of the report.]

Conclusion

What are the real threats?

And what might the next false flags be, in order to direct society in a prescribed direction?

There are of course the threats from terrorism, biodiversity loss, microbes, traffickers, etc., but there is a focus on the concern that democracies are being eroded by manipulators of social media.

Is the threat not within? The whole Middle East conflict was “arranged” and planned decades ago, and the destruction of the environment is just collateral damage in the resources grab of global multinationals.

The report talks about competition between nations, and about the dangers in the rise in cyber attacks and power. Interestingly, it uses the word “actors”. Yes, governments are just “actors” in the narrative that is being prescribed to them by more powerful writers. We need to understand who is controlling all these government actors.

A positive note though: the public have “become less trusting of authoritative information sources.”

Video analysis here by Lisa Haven.